Also view the global incident map displaying terrorist acts, suspicious activity, and general terrorism news.
Present chart lists occurences of existential threats which unless something is done about them will kill the human race to the last individual. Note that this list only includes occurences which do not leave a single human being alive. Occurrences which somehow leave a large enough group of humans alive with which humanity can be repopulated are explicitly not included here.
The threats are ranked by the probability of their an occurrence within the next 25 years. The probabilities are calculated using scientifically produced statistics relevant to each risk. The probabilities are recalculated on a regular basis to reflect all significant changes relevant to each risk. Such changes include better scientific data; new scientific discoveries; major international political events etc.
The links embedded in the names of threats link to pages explaining the threat question in detail as well as a discussion of possible countermeasures addressing that particular threat as proposed by the Lifeboat Foundation. The link embedded in each probability links to a page providing the statistics relevant to that risk plus the mathematical method used to produce the calculated probability for the risk in question.
We strongly invite and encourage anyone especially scientists to bring to our attention any relevant data which we may not yet have seen, as well as suggest improvements to our probability calculation methods.
Existential Risk | Prob.
of
occurring within next 25 years |
Mankind-unfriendly AI | .060 |
Malicious Nanobotic Ecophagy | .053 |
Gamma-ray Burst | .049 |
Global Thermonuclear War | .032 |
Universe-simulation Computation Stop | .029 |
Malicious Global Pandemic / Bioweapon Attack | .0021 |
Deux Ex Machina | .0015 |
Particle Accelerator Accident | .00077 |
Anti-matter Bomb Black Hole | .00032 |
Impact by Asteroid or Comet | .000083 |
Extermination by Alien Civilization | .000036 |
Catastrophic Climate Collapse | .0000012 |
Magnetic Pole Reversal | .00000023 |
Supervolcano Eruption | .000000034 |
Heat Death of Universe | TBD |
Absorption by Rogue Black Hole | TBD |
Solar Mega-flares | TBD |
Vacuum Collapse | TBD |
Neurotropic Attack / Collapse | TBD |
|
High probability & occurring relatively soon (i.e. possibly in your lifetime). |
Medium probability & occurring in the Medium term (i.e. in your lifetime or that of your kids). |
Low probability & occurring in the long-term (i.e. relevant to future generations… if we survive to see them emerge). |